Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
Australia unemployment rate, June 2026
What will the Australian Bureau of Statistics first report as Australia's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for June 2026 in Labour Force, Australia?
current forecast · 80% CI4.4%
4.1%4.4%4.8%
history:Mar 2026 SA unemployment rate: 4.3%Apr 2026 SA unemployment rate: 4.5%May 2026 SA unemployment rate: 4.4%May 2026 trend unemployment rate: 4.4%May 2026 participation rate: 66.7%
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% intervalactual
thesis.analyst · 2026-07-04T21:29:22Z
resolved outcomeinside 80% interval
- actual
- 4.4%
- forecast
- 4.4% with 80% CI [4.1%, 4.8%]
- error
- 0.0% · absolute 0.0%
- cdf score
- CRPS 0.076 · PIT 0.50
- source
- abs Labour Force, Australia (dataflow LF: unemployment rate, persons, total age, seasonally adjusted, Australia)
First print for 2026-06 captured from https://data.api.abs.gov.au/rest/data/LF/M13.3.1599.20.AUS.M?lastNObservations=30&format=jsondata on the official release date named by the cell's resolver.
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- July 4, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.5
- ledger fact
- abs.labour.unemployment_rate.australia.june_2026.first_print
Key drivers
- May unemployment rate fell to 4.4 percent after April's 4.5 percent spike
- Trend unemployment rate rose marginally to 4.4 percent
- May employment rose 40,300 while unemployed people fell 18,300
- Participation was stable at 66.7 percent
- Labour Force Survey modernisation adds modest release-noise risk
Resolution
- source
- Australian Bureau of Statistics Labour Force, Australia, June 2026
- resolved
- July 25, 2026
- actual
- 4.4%
- rule
- Resolve to the first published seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for June 2026 in ABS Labour Force, Australia, reported in percent to one decimal place. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.
- Data point
- abs.labour.unemployment_rate.australia.june_2026.first_print
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.