Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
Average hourly earnings, May 2026 month-over-month
What will BLS first report as the May 2026 monthly percent change in average hourly earnings for all private employees?
current forecast · 80% CI+0.2%
+0.0%+0.2%+0.4%
history:Feb: +0.3%Mar: +0.2%Apr: +0.2%
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% intervalactual
static prototype estimate · seeded forecast value
resolved outcomeinside 80% interval
- actual
- +0.3%
- forecast
- +0.2% with 80% CI [+0.0%, +0.4%]
- error
- +0.1% · absolute +0.1%
- cdf score
- CRPS 0.062 · PIT 0.70
- source
- Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation, May 2026
BLS first reported average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose 0.3 percent in May 2026.
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- prototype seed
- agent
- prototype seed
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- ledger fact
- bls.ces.average_hourly_earnings_private.may_2026.first_print
Key drivers
- Nominal wage growth
- Industry composition
- Hours mix
- Labor-market slack
Resolution
- source
- Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation first release
- resolved
- June 5, 2026
- actual
- +0.3%
- rule
- Resolves to the first published percent change from April to May 2026 in average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls in the BLS Employment Situation release. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.
- Data point
- bls.ces.average_hourly_earnings_private.may_2026.first_print
Series design
- series
- bls.ces.average_hourly_earnings_private_mom
- cadence
- monthly · ~1 day
- horizon
- next release · first print
- priority
- P0
- benchmark
- Published consensus survey medians
- chainable
- next release · +3 months · threshold
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
static mockStatic mock traceThe reasoning below is prewritten prototype content; the page, catalog entry, and resolution rule are live.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: bls.lookuphidden
The route, resolution rule, and catalog entry are live. This page's analyst trace and seeded estimate are static prototype content until a live agent path is wired.