Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.

Belgium consumer confidence, July 2026

National Bank of Belgium consumer confidence indicator for July 2026, seasonally adjusted, first official print

current forecast · 80% CI-8.4
-15.0-8.4-2.0
history:2026-06 consumer confidence indicator: -8.02026-05 consumer confidence indicator: -10.02026-04 consumer confidence indicator: -12.02026-03 consumer confidence indicator: -8.02026-02 consumer confidence indicator: -7.0

Trend

history + forecast
-17-11-5.60.12026-06 consumer confidence indicator2026-02 consumer confidence indicatorJul 2026-8.4
historyforecast path80% interval

thesis.analyst · 2026-07-04T23:50:10Z

recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
record
July 4, 2026
agent
thesis.analyst
distribution
201 CDF points
model
gpt-5.5
ledger fact
nbb.consumer_confidence.indicator.2026-07.first_print

Key drivers

  • June consumer confidence recovered from the April trough but stayed negative
  • recent NBB survey balances remain below neutral
  • Belgian inflation pressure is easing but services inflation remains high
  • euro-area consumer confidence improved in June from weak levels
  • household survey balances can move several points month to month

Resolution

source
National Bank of Belgium consumer survey release
expected
July 20, 2026
rule
Resolve to the first National Bank of Belgium published consumer confidence indicator for 2026-07, seasonally adjusted, reported in signed index points and rounded to the agency's published one-decimal precision. Use the first official NBB print only; ignore later NBB.Stat revisions, corrections after the first release, FRED, and third-party mirrors.
Data point
nbb.consumer_confidence.indicator.2026-07.first_print

Analyst agent · reasoning trace

recorded agent run
Recorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay

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recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
recorded source check: official.lookuphidden

This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.

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