Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
Belgium NBB business barometer, July 2026
National Bank of Belgium overall business barometer synthetic curve for July 2026, seasonally adjusted, first official print
current forecast · 80% CI-12.2
-17.5-12.2-7.0
history:2026-06 overall business barometer: -12.62026-05 overall business barometer: -13.82026-04 overall business barometer: -15.42026-03 overall business barometer: -12.12026-02 overall business barometer: -11.4
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
thesis.analyst · 2026-07-04T23:47:58Z
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- July 4, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.5
- ledger fact
- nbb.business_barometer.overall.2026-07.first_print
Key drivers
- June barometer improved from April's trough but stayed negative
- recent NBB survey levels remain below neutral and below early-2026 readings
- Belgian inflation and services costs remain a drag on confidence
- euro-area consumer confidence improved in June but remained weak
- monthly survey balances have several-point first-print volatility
Resolution
- source
- National Bank of Belgium business survey release
- expected
- July 24, 2026
- rule
- Resolve to the first National Bank of Belgium published overall business barometer synthetic curve for 2026-07, seasonally adjusted, reported in index points and rounded to the agency's published one-decimal precision. Use the first official print only; ignore later NBB.Stat revisions, corrections after the first release, and mirrors.
- Data point
- nbb.business_barometer.overall.2026-07.first_print
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
§
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.