US PPI Final Demand Monthly Change, June 2026

Framing and exact resolver: this targets the BLS Producer Price Index for final demand, seasonally adjusted, month-over-month percent change for June 2026, resolved on the first official print in the Producer Price Index news release. The variant is the headline final demand SA monthly percent change, not NSA 12-month change, not core, and not final demand goods or services.

Base rate and reference class: the May 2025-May 2026 headline final-demand monthly changes average about 0.51 percent. I use that outside-view anchor before updating for the latest two prints at 1.1 percent and the component mix.

Update from current-release evidence: I anchor below pure two-month persistence because much of May was an energy/gasoline one-off, but above the 12-month mean because goods, energy, and core-ex-trade momentum were all firm.

Prior/update/interval: model is a 13-month historical base-rate plus two-month persistence prior. Historical sample is BLS Table A May 2025-May 2026 total final demand values [0.3, 0.2, 0.8, -0.2, 0.6, 0.1, 0.4, 0.4, 0.6, 0.5, 0.7, 1.1, 1.1], mean = 0.51 and sample sigma = 0.37. Adjustment components: +0.20 for April-May persistence and broad goods/core firmness, -0.05 for expected partial energy/gasoline mean reversion, +0.04 for services/core carry-through, giving 0.70. 80% interval method: values themselves are the change-series dispersion, so 80% half-width is roughly 1.28*sigma = 1.28*0.37 = 0.47, rounded to 0.5; final implied bounds are 0.7 - 0.5 = 0.2 and 0.7 + 0.5 = 1.2.

Counter-consideration: upside risk is another large June energy or gasoline pass-through plus firm portfolio-management and transportation services, which would land above the interval if headline final demand prints above 1.2 percent. Downside risk is a sharp reversal in gasoline, crude, or trade-service margins, which would land below the interval if headline final demand prints below 0.2 percent.

Review disposition: accepted the optional suggestions to make the base rate appear before current-release updates and to label the arithmetic bounds explicitly as an 80% interval; no required fixes were raised.

Framing and exact resolver: this targets the BLS Producer Price Index for final demand, seasonally adjusted, month-over-month percent change for June 2026, resolved on the first official print in the Producer Price Index news release. The variant is the headline final demand SA monthly percent change, not NSA 12-month change, not core, and not final demand goods or services.

Base rate and reference class: the May 2025-May 2026 headline final-demand monthly changes average about 0.51 percent. I use that outside-view anchor before updating for the latest two prints at 1.1 percent and the component mix.

Update from current-release evidence: I anchor below pure two-month persistence because much of May was an energy/gasoline one-off, but above the 12-month mean because goods, energy, transportation, and core-ex-trade momentum were all firm.

Prior/update/interval: model is a 13-month historical base-rate plus two-month persistence prior. Historical sample is BLS Table A May 2025-May 2026 total final demand values [0.3, 0.2, 0.8, -0.2, 0.6, 0.1, 0.4, 0.4, 0.6, 0.5, 0.7, 1.1, 1.1], mean = 0.51 and sample sigma = 0.37. Adjustment components: +0.20 for April-May persistence and broad goods/core firmness, -0.05 for expected partial energy/gasoline mean reversion, +0.04 for services/core carry-through, giving 0.70. 80% interval method: values themselves are the change-series dispersion, so 80% half-width is roughly 1.28*sigma = 1.28*0.37 = 0.47, rounded to 0.5; final implied bounds are 0.7 - 0.5 = 0.2 and 0.7 + 0.5 = 1.2.

Prior-run context: I inspected a generated public Thesis record from 2026-07-07 for this same target only as strategy context; it used the same BLS release and calendar evidence, so I keep the same point and interval after re-verifying the official calendar and current BLS release this run.

Counter-consideration: upside risk is another large June energy or gasoline pass-through plus firm portfolio-management and transportation services, which would land above the interval if headline final demand prints above 1.2 percent. Downside risk is a sharp reversal in gasoline, crude, or trade-service margins, which would land below the interval if headline final demand prints below 0.2 percent.

Framing and exact resolver: this forecast is for BLS Producer Price Index final demand, seasonally adjusted, monthly percent change for June 2026, series WPSFD4. The resolution is the first printed one-decimal BLS value, not later revised PPI history.

Base rate/reference class: the outside view is the 13-month BLS Table A distribution for the same seasonally adjusted final-demand series, centered near +0.51 percent with a recent shock tail. A simple persistence-only forecast from the last two prints would be +1.1 percent, but the component mix argues against repeating the full May energy impulse.

Mechanism split: the level of pipeline inflation is high, momentum is elevated after two +1.1 percent months, the one-off May gasoline jump should mean-revert partly, and the policy/rate environment does not mechanically cap producer prices before the June survey month. I therefore put the point above the 13-month mean but below the April-May pace.

Prior/update/interval: persistence-plus-reference-class prior uses the BLS May 2025-May 2026 WPSFD4 same-variant sample. Base mean = 0.5077; persistence signal from Apr-May = 1.1; one-off energy/gasoline mean-reversion adjustment = -0.3 to -0.5 versus persistence; services/core floor adjustment = +0.1 versus the base rate. Final point = 0.6. For this change/flow series, sigma is the sample stdev of the values themselves: sigma = 0.373 from [0.3, 0.2, 0.8, -0.2, 0.6, 0.1, 0.4, 0.4, 0.6, 0.5, 0.7, 1.1, 1.1]. 80 percent half-width = 1.28*sigma = 1.28*0.373 = 0.477, so 0.6 +/- 0.477 gives [0.1226, 1.0774], rounded to [0.1, 1.1].

Counter-consideration: upside risk is a renewed petroleum, freight, or trade-services spike that keeps final demand near or above the April-May pace and would land above the interval if the first print exceeds 1.1 percent. Downside risk is a fast reversal in gasoline or margins that would land outside the interval below 0.1 percent. The central case is partial persistence of the shock, not a full repeat.

Framing and exact resolver: this targets the BLS Producer Price Index for final demand, seasonally adjusted, month-over-month percent change for June 2026, resolved on the first official print in the Producer Price Index news release. The variant is the headline final demand SA monthly percent change, series code WPSFD4, not the NSA 12-month change, not core PPI, and not final demand goods or services.

Base rate and reference class: the May 2025-May 2026 headline final-demand monthly changes average 0.51 percent. I anchor on that outside view before updating for the latest two 1.1 percent prints and the component split.

Update from current-release evidence: April and May point to strong near-term momentum, especially goods and energy, but the May composition was partly a gasoline and energy shock, so I do not project a full repeat. Services at 0.3 percent pulls the forecast below pure two-month persistence.

Prior/update/interval: model is a 13-month historical base-rate plus two-month persistence prior. Historical sample is BLS Table A May 2025-May 2026 total final demand values [0.3, 0.2, 0.8, -0.2, 0.6, 0.1, 0.4, 0.4, 0.6, 0.5, 0.7, 1.1, 1.1], mean = 0.51 and sigma = 0.37. Adjustment components: +0.20 for April-May persistence and broad goods/core firmness, -0.05 for expected partial energy/gasoline mean reversion, +0.04 for services/core carry-through, giving 0.70. 80% interval method: values themselves are the change-series dispersion, so half-width is roughly 1.28*sigma = 1.28*0.37 = 0.47, rounded to 0.5; final implied bounds are 0.7 - 0.5 = 0.2 and 0.7 + 0.5 = 1.2.

Counter-consideration: upside risk is another large June energy or gasoline pass-through plus firm portfolio-management and transportation services, which would land above the interval if headline final demand prints above 1.2 percent. Downside risk is a sharp reversal in gasoline, crude, or trade-service margins, which would land below the interval if headline final demand prints below 0.2 percent.

Framing and exact resolver: this targets the BLS Producer Price Index for final demand, seasonally adjusted, month-over-month percent change for June 2026, resolved on the first official print in the Producer Price Index news release. The variant is the headline final demand SA monthly percent change, not NSA 12-month change, not core, and not final demand goods or services.

Base rate and reference class: the outside-view anchor is the May 2025-May 2026 BLS Table A sample of headline final-demand monthly changes, with mean 0.51 percent, before updating for the latest two 1.1 percent prints and component mix.

Current-release update: the two-month headline run rate argues above the base rate, but May's goods shock was heavily energy and gasoline driven, so I do not carry the full April-May pace into June.

Level, momentum, one-off, and policy-mechanism split: level is elevated because the 12-month final demand change reached 6.5 percent; momentum is strong in headline and core-ex-trade; the main one-off is May gasoline and energy; monetary-policy pressure is more likely to restrain future demand than the first June input-cost print.

Ladder: P(X <= -0.4) = 0.03; P(X <= -0.2) = 0.06; P(X <= 0.0) = 0.08; P(X <= 0.2) = 0.10; P(X <= 0.4) = 0.24; P(X <= 0.5) = 0.35; P(X <= 0.7) = 0.50; P(X <= 0.8) = 0.60; P(X <= 1.0) = 0.76; P(X <= 1.2) = 0.90; P(X <= 1.4) = 0.96; P(X <= 1.6) = 0.98. Linear interpolation gives p10 = 0.2, p50 = 0.7, and p90 = 1.2, rounded to one decimal.

Prior/update/interval: model is a 13-month historical base-rate plus two-month persistence prior. Historical sample is BLS Table A May 2025-May 2026 total final demand values [0.3, 0.2, 0.8, -0.2, 0.6, 0.1, 0.4, 0.4, 0.6, 0.5, 0.7, 1.1, 1.1], mean = 0.51 and sigma = 0.37. Adjustment components: +0.20 for April-May persistence and broad goods/core firmness, -0.05 for expected partial energy/gasoline mean reversion, +0.04 for services/core carry-through, giving 0.70. 80% interval method: values themselves are the change-series dispersion, so 80% half-width is roughly 1.28*sigma = 1.28*0.37 = 0.47; the ladder-implied half-width is about 0.5, effectively the same after one-decimal rounding, with final implied bounds 0.2 and 1.2. I used the short post-2025 sample because it matches the current high-inflation, high-volatility regime evident in the official recent release, rather than mixing in calmer earlier years.

Counter-consideration: upside risk is another large June energy or gasoline pass-through plus firm portfolio-management and transportation services, which would land above the interval if headline final demand prints above 1.2 percent. Downside risk is a sharp reversal in gasoline, crude, or trade-service margins, which would land below the interval if headline final demand prints below 0.2 percent.

Review disposition: accepted the optional suggestion to make clear that the release date evidence came from the official BLS PPI schedule page, and accepted the suggestion to explain why the 13-month historical sample was used; no reviewer required fixes were raised.

Derived run: the pointwise median of the CDFs of 3 independent thesis.analyst fast rollouts on this target — median prediction sampling per Turtel et al. 2025 (arXiv:2505.17989). No new model call; this run is a deterministic aggregate of the recorded rollouts at 2026-07-08T02:51:00Z, 2026-07-08T02:51:24Z, 2026-07-08T02:52:43Z. Drivers and resolver fields mirror the rollout closest to the median.

Median CDF quantiles: q10 = 0.2, q50 = 0.7, q90 = 1.2. Constituent points [0.7, 0.6, 0.7] with 80% widths [1.0, 1.0, 1.0]; the median interval inherits the central rollout mass rather than averaging tails.