Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
California Medicaid procedural disenrollment share, August 2026
What share of California Medicaid beneficiaries disenrolled at renewal in the August 2026 reporting period will be disenrolled for procedural reasons, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?
current forecast · 80% CI93.0%
88.5%93.0%95.5%
history:May 25: 62.9%Aug 25: 83.8%Nov 25: 89.7%Feb 26: 92.7%
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
static prototype estimate · seeded forecast value
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- prototype seed
- agent
- prototype seed
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- ledger fact
- cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.california.aug_2026
Key drivers
- Ex parte renewal expansion via CalSAWS data matching
- Composition: automation clears the determinably eligible, so residual disenrollments skew procedural
- Notice redesign and renewal outreach efforts
- Month-to-month renewal cohort mix
Resolution
- source
- CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)
- expected
- December 15, 2026
- rule
- Resolves to beneficiaries disenrolled for procedural reasons divided by total beneficiaries disenrolled at renewal, California, August 2026 reporting period, original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c, computed when CMS first publishes the row (expected roughly three to four months after the period).
- Data point
- cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.california.aug_2026
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
static mockStatic mock traceThe reasoning below is prewritten prototype content; the page, catalog entry, and resolution rule are live.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: ledger.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: ledger.lookuphidden
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The route, resolution rule, and catalog entry are live. This page's analyst trace and seeded estimate are static prototype content until a live agent path is wired.