ConditionalOutcome forecast conditional on a policy state.
California procedural share | ex parte at or above 80%
Conditional on California's ex parte renewal share reaching at least 80 percent in the August 2026 reporting period, what will its procedural share of disenrollments be in that period, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?
conditional on: California ex parte renewal share at or above 80% in the August 2026 reporting period
current forecast · 80% CI94.5%
91.5%94.5%96.5%
history:Aug 25: 83.8%Nov 25: 89.7%Feb 26: 92.7%
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
static prototype estimate · seeded forecast value
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- prototype seed
- agent
- prototype seed
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- ledger fact
- cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ca.aug_2026.conditional
Key drivers
- Compositional mechanism: automation clears the determinably eligible first
- CalSAWS data-matching expansion pace
- Notice redesign offsetting the composition effect
- Cohort mix in the August renewal tranche
Resolution
- source
- CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)
- expected
- December 15, 2026
- rule
- Resolves to California's procedural disenrollments divided by total disenrollments at renewal for the August 2026 reporting period (original submission row, CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c), conditional on the event 'California ex parte renewals divided by total completed renewals is at least 80.0 percent in the same row.' If the conditioning event does not occur, the cell is marked unresolved.
- Data point
- cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.ca.aug_2026.conditional
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
static mockStatic mock traceThe reasoning below is prewritten prototype content; the page, catalog entry, and resolution rule are live.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: cms.lookuphidden
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The route, resolution rule, and catalog entry are live. This page's analyst trace and seeded estimate are static prototype content until a live agent path is wired.