Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
Canada building permit value growth, April 2026
What will Statistics Canada first report as the monthly change in the seasonally adjusted total value of Canadian building permits for April 2026?
current forecast · 80% CI-2.0%
-16.0%-2.0%+13.0%
history:Feb: -8.4%Mar: +10.3%
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% intervalactual
Global near-term indicator source synthesis · 2026-06-06T14:42:00+02:00
resolved outcomeinside 80% interval
- actual
- -7.6%
- forecast
- -2.0% with 80% CI [-16.0%, +13.0%]
- error
- -5.6% · absolute +5.6%
- cdf score
- CRPS 3.99 · PIT 0.34
- source
- Statistics Canada Building permits, April 2026
Total value of building permits -7.6% SA in April (-$1.0B to $12.5B); recorded point -2.
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- June 6, 2026
- agent
- Global near-term indicator source synthesis
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- Codex recorded source-context synthesis
- ledger fact
- statcan.building_permits.total_value_mom.canada.april_2026.first_print
Key drivers
- Multi-family residential permits
- Non-residential project timing
- Province-level construction cycles
- Interest-rate and financing conditions
Resolution
- source
- Statistics Canada Building Permits
- resolved
- June 11, 2026
- actual
- -7.6%
- rule
- Resolves to the first published monthly percent change in the seasonally adjusted total value of Canadian building permits for April 2026 in Statistics Canada's Building permits release. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.
- Data point
- statcan.building_permits.total_value_mom.canada.april_2026.first_print
Series design
- series
- statcan.building_permits.total_value_mom
- cadence
- monthly · ~2 weeks
- horizon
- next release · first print
- priority
- P1
- benchmark
- Recent building-permit volatility and construction pipeline
- chainable
- next release · +3 months · housing supply
- run
- Global near-term indicator source synthesis · Codex recorded source-context synthesis · June 6, 2026
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: statcan.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: statcan.lookuphidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.