Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
Canada employment change, May 2026
What will Statistics Canada first report as the May 2026 monthly change in seasonally adjusted employment for Canada?
current forecast · 80% CI-10k
-60k-10k50k
history:Jan: -25kFeb: -84kMar: 14kApr: -18k
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% intervalactual
Canada/Australia indicator agent ensemble · 2026-06-04T11:36:25+01:00
resolved outcomeoutside 80% interval
- actual
- 88k
- forecast
- -10k with 80% CI [-60k, 50k]
- error
- +98k · absolute 98k
- cdf score
- CRPS 68.3 · PIT 0.94
- source
- Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey, May 2026
Statistics Canada first reported employment increased by 88,000 in May 2026.
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- June 4, 2026
- agent
- Canada/Australia indicator agent ensemble
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- Codex recorded agent runs
- ledger fact
- statcan.lfs.employment_change.canada.may_2026.first_print
Key drivers
- Full-time versus part-time mix
- Ontario and Quebec employment swings
- Manufacturing and construction softness
- LFS monthly sampling variability
Resolution
- source
- Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey
- resolved
- June 5, 2026
- actual
- 88k
- rule
- Resolves to the first published monthly change in seasonally adjusted total employment for Canada in the May 2026 Labour Force Survey. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.
- Data point
- statcan.lfs.employment_change.canada.may_2026.first_print
Series design
- series
- statcan.lfs.employment_change
- cadence
- monthly · ~1 day
- horizon
- next release · first print
- priority
- P0
- benchmark
- Canadian labour-market consensus and LFS sampling error
- chainable
- next release · +3 months · unemployment threshold
- run
- Canada/Australia indicator agent ensemble · Codex recorded agent runs · June 4, 2026
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
§
▸ recorded source check: statcan.lookuphidden
▸ recorded agent run: agent.runhidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.