Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
Canada retail sales growth, April 2026
What will Statistics Canada first report as the monthly change in seasonally adjusted Canadian retail sales for April 2026?
current forecast · 80% CI+0.6%
-0.2%+0.6%+1.4%
history:Feb: +0.7%Mar: +0.9%Apr adv: +0.6%
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% intervalactual
Global near-term indicator source synthesis · 2026-06-06T14:42:00+02:00
resolved outcomeinside 80% interval
- actual
- +0.5%
- forecast
- +0.6% with 80% CI [-0.2%, +1.4%]
- error
- -0.1% · absolute +0.1%
- cdf score
- CRPS 0.18 · PIT 0.45
- source
- Statistics Canada Retail trade, April 2026
Statistics Canada reported retail sales rose 0.5% to $73.0 billion in April 2026.
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- June 6, 2026
- agent
- Global near-term indicator source synthesis
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- Codex recorded source-context synthesis
- ledger fact
- statcan.retail_trade.sales_mom.canada.april_2026.first_print
Key drivers
- Advance retail indicator
- Gasoline station sales
- Motor vehicle and parts dealers
- Core retail demand
Resolution
- source
- Statistics Canada Retail Trade
- resolved
- June 19, 2026
- actual
- +0.5%
- rule
- Resolves to the first published monthly percent change in seasonally adjusted Canadian retail sales for April 2026 in Statistics Canada's Retail trade release. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.
- Data point
- statcan.retail_trade.sales_mom.canada.april_2026.first_print
Series design
- series
- statcan.retail_trade.sales_mom
- cadence
- monthly · ~3 weeks
- horizon
- next release · first print
- priority
- P0
- benchmark
- Statistics Canada advance retail indicator
- chainable
- next release · +3 months · GDP contribution
- run
- Global near-term indicator source synthesis · Codex recorded source-context synthesis · June 6, 2026
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: statcan.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: statcan.lookuphidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.