Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
Canada unemployment rate, May 2026
What will Statistics Canada first report as Canada's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for May 2026?
current forecast · 80% CI7.0%
6.7%7.0%7.3%
history:Jan: 6.5%Feb: 6.7%Mar: 6.7%Apr: 6.9%
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% intervalactual
Canada/Australia indicator agent ensemble · 2026-06-04T11:36:25+01:00
resolved outcomeoutside 80% interval
- actual
- 6.6%
- forecast
- 7.0% with 80% CI [6.7%, 7.3%]
- error
- -0.4% · absolute 0.4%
- cdf score
- CRPS 0.27 · PIT 0.078
- source
- Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey, May 2026
Statistics Canada first reported the unemployment rate fell 0.3 percentage points to 6.6% in May 2026.
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- June 4, 2026
- agent
- Canada/Australia indicator agent ensemble
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- Codex recorded agent runs
- ledger fact
- statcan.lfs.unemployment_rate.canada.may_2026.first_print
Key drivers
- Recent unemployment-rate drift
- Labour-force participation
- Full-time employment changes
- Job-vacancy and wage-growth context
Resolution
- source
- Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey
- resolved
- June 5, 2026
- actual
- 6.6%
- rule
- Resolves to the first published seasonally adjusted Canada unemployment rate in the Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey for May 2026. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.
- Data point
- statcan.lfs.unemployment_rate.canada.may_2026.first_print
Series design
- series
- statcan.lfs.unemployment_rate
- cadence
- monthly · ~1 day
- horizon
- next release · first print
- priority
- P0
- benchmark
- Canadian economist consensus and recent LFS trend
- chainable
- next release · +3 months · rate-decision reaction
- run
- Canada/Australia indicator agent ensemble · Codex recorded agent runs · June 4, 2026
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: statcan.lookuphidden
▸ recorded agent run: agent.runhidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.