Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
California Medicaid Procedural Disenrollments, June 2026
What will CMS first report for California beneficiaries disenrolled from Medicaid/CHIP for procedural or administrative reasons in the June 2026 reporting month, in the original/preliminary state-row Eligibility Processing Data first print?
current forecast · 80% CI205,000
170,000205,000240,000
history:2026-03 first-print implied procedural disenrollments: 200,1772026-02 first-print implied procedural disenrollments: 200,6162026-01 first-print implied procedural disenrollments: 216,3072025-12 first-print implied procedural disenrollments: 208,5002025-06 first-print implied procedural disenrollments: 25,446
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
thesis.analyst · 2026-07-07T22:17:12Z
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- July 7, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.5
- ledger fact
- cms.medicaid_pi.beneficiaries_disenrolled_procedural.california.2026-06.first_print
Key drivers
- California procedural disenrollment rate has been 19-20 percent in the latest first-print state rows
- California renewals due have stayed near one million per month in the latest four prints
- National procedural disenrollment rate rose from 11 percent in June 2025 to 15 percent by February-March 2026
- June 2025 California was an unusually low 3 percent procedural-disenrollment month and is downweighted versus the current regime
- First-print target uses original/preliminary renewal outcomes, not updated quarterly outcomes
Resolution
- source
- CMS Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Operations and Enrollment Snapshot Data
- expected
- September 25, 2026
- rule
- Resolve to the California state row for the June 2026 reporting month in CMS Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Operations and Enrollment Snapshot Data, Eligibility Processing Data, original/preliminary first print, for beneficiaries disenrolled for a procedural or administrative reason. Use the first posted CMS monthly snapshot/Data.Medicaid.gov value only; do not revise to later quarterly updated renewal outcomes or later corrections. Unit is persons, as an official integer count.
- Data point
- cms.medicaid_pi.beneficiaries_disenrolled_procedural.california.2026-06.first_print
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
§
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.