Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
California Medicaid ex parte renewals, Jun 2026
What will CMS first print for California beneficiaries renewed on an ex parte basis in the preliminary June 2026 Medicaid and CHIP Applications, Eligibility, and Enrollment Performance Indicator data?
current forecast · 80% CI718,000
662,000718,000774,000
history:2026-03 preliminary California beneficiaries renewed ex parte: 706,8842026-02 updated California beneficiaries renewed ex parte: 691,2382026-01 updated California beneficiaries renewed ex parte: 758,4462025-12 updated California beneficiaries renewed ex parte: 741,0922025-11 updated California beneficiaries renewed ex parte: 700,8352025-10 updated California beneficiaries renewed ex parte: 663,214
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
thesis.analyst · 2026-07-08T16:44:56Z
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- July 8, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.5
- ledger fact
- cms.medicaid_pi.beneficiaries_renewed_ex_parte.california.2026-06.preliminary_first_print
Key drivers
- California renewal volume remains large and fairly stable after unwinding normalization
- ex parte automation should keep counts near the recent 0.69M to 0.76M band
- June seasonality is modest relative to reporting and batch-timing noise
- first-print preliminary rows can differ from updated rows because of late state reporting
Resolution
- source
- CMS Medicaid.gov Applications, Eligibility, and Enrollment Performance Indicator data on Data.Medicaid.gov
- expected
- September 25, 2026
- rule
- Resolve to the California state row count for beneficiaries renewed on an ex parte basis in the first official preliminary June 2026 Applications, Eligibility, and Enrollment Performance Indicator data release. Use the unrounded person count shown by CMS/Data.Medicaid.gov; do not use later updated-vintage rows or subsequent revisions.
- Data point
- cms.medicaid_pi.beneficiaries_renewed_ex_parte.california.2026-06.preliminary_first_print
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.