Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
California Medicaid Renewals, Jun 2026
What will CMS first report as California's preliminary state-row total number of Medicaid/CHIP beneficiaries renewed in coverage for the June 2026 Eligibility Processing Data reporting month?
current forecast · 80% CI590,000
530,000590,000650,000
history:2026-03 preliminary CA renewed proxy from 1,053,563 due * 57%: 600,5312026-02 preliminary CA renewed proxy from 1,003,079 due * 56%: 561,7242026-01 preliminary CA renewed proxy from 1,138,457 due * 51%: 580,6132025-12 preliminary CA renewed proxy from 1,097,366 due * 60%: 658,4202025-11 preliminary CA renewed proxy from 835,824 due * 64%: 534,9272025-10 preliminary CA renewed proxy from 864,933 due * 67%: 579,505
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
thesis.analyst · 2026-07-08T00:00:00Z
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- July 8, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.5
- ledger fact
- cms.medicaid_pi.beneficiaries_renewed_total.california.2026-06.first_print
Key drivers
- California renewal volume remains near 1.0 million due per month
- California retention rate fell from late-2025 levels but stabilized near 56-57% in February-March 2026
- June is a preliminary state-row Eligibility Processing Data target, not a national total or weighted average
- CMS monthly snapshot timing points to late September first print for June data
- Large pending share creates upside if processing clears before month end and downside if pending stays elevated
Resolution
- source
- CMS Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Operations and Enrollment Snapshot Data
- expected
- September 25, 2026
- rule
- Resolve to the first official CMS preliminary June 2026 California state-row value for total individuals renewed in Medicaid/CHIP coverage in the Eligibility Processing Data / Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Operations and Enrollment Snapshot Data. Use the person count as published by CMS; ignore later updated quarterly vintages or subsequent revisions. If the public table exposes only component counts, sum ex parte renewals and form-based renewals for the California row. Round to whole beneficiaries.
- Data point
- cms.medicaid_pi.beneficiaries_renewed_total.california.2026-06.first_print
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.