Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
Core CPI, May 2026 month-over-month
What will BLS first report as the May 2026 seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in CPI-U less food and energy?
current forecast · 80% CI+0.3%
+0.1%+0.3%+0.4%
history:Feb: +0.2%Mar: +0.2%Apr: +0.4%
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% intervalactual
Three-agent CPI ensemble · 2026-06-06T23:43:56+02:00
resolved outcomeinside 80% interval
- actual
- +0.2%
- forecast
- +0.3% with 80% CI [+0.1%, +0.4%]
- error
- -0.1% · absolute +0.1%
- cdf score
- CRPS 0.053 · PIT 0.30
- source
- Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index, May 2026
Core CPI +0.2% MoM SA (FRED CPILFESL 335.423->336.121 = +0.208%); recorded point was 0.3.
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- June 6, 2026
- agent
- Three-agent CPI ensemble
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- Codex recorded agent ensemble
- ledger fact
- bls.cpi.u.core_mom.may_2026.first_print
Key drivers
- Shelter services
- Core goods
- Medical care services
- Tariff pass-through
Resolution
- source
- Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index first release
- resolved
- June 10, 2026
- actual
- +0.2%
- rule
- Resolves to the first published May 2026 seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in CPI-U less food and energy in the BLS CPI release. Later seasonal-adjustment revisions do not change the resolved value.
- Data point
- bls.cpi.u.core_mom.may_2026.first_print
Series design
- series
- bls.cpi.u.core_mom
- cadence
- monthly · ~1 week
- horizon
- next release · first print
- priority
- P0
- benchmark
- Published consensus survey medians
- chainable
- next release · +12 months · threshold
- run
- Three-agent CPI ensemble · Codex recorded agent ensemble · June 6, 2026
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: bls.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: clevelandfed.nowcasthidden
▸ recorded source check: agent_ensemble.combinehidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.