thesisPrototype
Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.

Core PCE, May 2026 month-over-month

What will the month-over-month percent change in the core PCE price index be for May 2026 in BEA's Personal Income and Outlays release?

current forecast · 80% CI+0.2%
+0.1%+0.2%+0.4%
history:Jan: +0.3%Feb: +0.2%Mar: +0.1%Apr: +0.1%

Trend

history + forecast
0.10.20.30.4JanAprJun 2026+0.2%
historyforecast path80% interval

static prototype estimate · seeded forecast value

recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
record
prototype seed
agent
prototype seed
distribution
3 runs · 201 CDF points each
ledger fact
bea.pce.core_mom.may_2026.first_print

Forecast runs

same target · agents, packs, updates
3
runs
2
agents
2
models
3
pack sets

Pack visualizer

3 packs
selected pack

Base-rate first

method

Forces the run to state an outside-view base rate before applying current-release adjustments.

Open pack page →
version
0.1.0
pack id
base-rate-first
pack set
May core PCE bridge pack set
agents
brier-1.shadow
used by
Brier-1 - packs
Headline
prototype seedunreported modelseed
unreported
+0.0%80% 0.1% to 0.4%+0.5%
public trace
Monthly next release cell

Core PCE gives the launch slate a second inflation target with a different source and mapping from CPI and PPI. This target resolves on 2026-06-25 under a first-print rule, with an expected ~4 weeks lag. The same series can also spawn next release, +12 months, threshold questions.

bea.lookup bea.lookup({ release: "personal_income_outlays", series: "core_pce_mom", months: ["2026-01", "2026-04"], vintage: "first_print" })
result { jan: 0.3, feb: 0.2, mar: 0.1, apr: 0.1 }
bridge.lookup bridge.lookup({ inputs: ["cpi_components", "ppi_components"], target: "core_pce_may_2026" })
result { cpi_bridge: 0.22, ppi_health_services: "neutral", financial_services: "firm" }

The bridge points to another 0.2% print. The upper interval leaves room for financial-services and health-care categories that CPI does not measure cleanly.

forecast +0.2% · 80% [0.1%, 0.4%]
+0.2%
-0.0%
Brier-1 - no packs
brier-1.shadowgpt-5Jun 20, 2026update 1/2

Paired shadow control run using the same agent and source context without prediction packs.

No packs
+0.0%80% 0.1% to 0.4%+0.5%
public trace
No-pack shadow run

The control run extrapolates recent core PCE momentum without translating CPI and PPI source data into PCE concepts.

forecast +0.2% · 80% [0.1%, 0.4%]
+0.2%
baseline
Brier-1 - packs
brier-1.shadowgpt-5Jun 20, 2026update 2/2

Paired shadow run using the same agent and source context with the relevant prediction packs applied.

May core PCE bridge pack set
+0.0%80% 0.1% to 0.4%+0.5%
public trace
Packed shadow run
brier.pack.apply brier.pack.apply({ target: "bea.pce.core_mom.may_2026.first_print", packs: ["base-rate-first@0.1.0", "pce-cpi-bridge@0.1.0", "release-vintage-calibration@0.1.0"] })
result { admitted: 3, mode: "with_packs", required_checks: ["core_pce_base_rate","cpi_scope_bridge","ppi_services_inputs","bea_release_calibration"] }

The pack run raises the center because CPI/PPI source data point to firmer BEA core PCE than the no-pack persistence baseline.

forecast +0.3% · 80% [0.1%, 0.4%]
+0.3%
+0.1%

Key drivers

  • CPI-to-PCE mapping
  • PPI health-care services
  • Portfolio-management fees
  • Airfares and lodging

Resolution

source
Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income and Outlays
expected
June 25, 2026
rule
Resolves to the first published month-over-month percent change in the PCE price index excluding food and energy for May 2026. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.
Data point
bea.pce.core_mom.may_2026.first_print

Series design

series
bea.pce.core_mom
cadence
monthly · ~4 weeks
horizon
next release · first print
priority
P0
benchmark
Published consensus survey medians
chainable
next release · +12 months · threshold

Analyst agent · reasoning trace

static mock
Static mock traceThe reasoning below is prewritten prototype content; the page, catalog entry, and resolution rule are live.
recorded trace replay

§

▸ recorded source check: bea.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: bridge.lookuphidden

The route, resolution rule, and catalog entry are live. This page's analyst trace and seeded estimate are static prototype content until a live agent path is wired.

More government data forecasts

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13.1%
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10.4%
resolves Sep 2026
Median household income, 2025
$80,600