Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
Headline CPI, May 2026 month-over-month
What will the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in headline CPI-U be for May 2026?
current forecast · 80% CI+0.5%
+0.3%+0.5%+0.7%
history:Jan: +0.3%Feb: +0.3%Mar: +0.9%Apr: +0.6%
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% intervalactual
Three-agent CPI ensemble · 2026-06-06T23:43:56+02:00
resolved outcomeinside 80% interval
- actual
- +0.5%
- forecast
- +0.5% with 80% CI [+0.3%, +0.7%]
- error
- 0.0% · absolute +0.0%
- cdf score
- CRPS 0.043 · PIT 0.50
- source
- Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index, May 2026
All-items CPI-U +0.5% MoM SA (FRED CPIAUCSL 332.407->333.979 = +0.473%, rounds to 0.5).
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- June 6, 2026
- agent
- Three-agent CPI ensemble
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- Codex recorded agent ensemble
- ledger fact
- bls.cpi.u.headline_mom.may_2026.first_print
Key drivers
- Shelter inflation
- Gasoline and energy prices
- Core goods disinflation
- Food-at-home prices
Resolution
- source
- Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index first release
- resolved
- June 10, 2026
- actual
- +0.5%
- rule
- Resolves to the first published seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in CPI-U for May 2026. Later seasonal-adjustment revisions do not change the resolved value.
- Data point
- bls.cpi.u.headline_mom.may_2026.first_print
Series design
- series
- bls.cpi.u.headline_mom
- cadence
- monthly · ~2 weeks
- horizon
- next release · first print
- priority
- P0
- benchmark
- Published consensus survey medians
- chainable
- next release · +12 months · threshold
- run
- Three-agent CPI ensemble · Codex recorded agent ensemble · June 6, 2026
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: bls.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: clevelandfed.nowcasthidden
▸ recorded source check: eia.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: agent_ensemble.combinehidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.