Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
Children receiving the CTC, TY2026
How many children will be claimed for the federal Child Tax Credit in tax year 2026?
current forecast · 80% CI48M
45M48M51M
history:TY2019: 48MTY2021: 61MTY2022: 49MTY2024e: 48M
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
static prototype estimate · seeded forecast value
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- prototype seed
- agent
- prototype seed
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- ledger fact
- irs.soi.ctc.qualifying_children.ty2026
Key drivers
- Child population
- Filing participation
- Eligibility documentation
- Refundability and outreach
Resolution
- source
- IRS Statistics of Income
- expected
- August 31, 2028
- rule
- Resolves to the number of qualifying children claimed for the federal Child Tax Credit for tax year 2026, in millions, using the first IRS Statistics of Income table that reports CTC child counts or the closest directly comparable official count.
- Data point
- irs.soi.ctc.qualifying_children.ty2026
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
static mockStatic mock traceThe reasoning below is prewritten prototype content; the page, catalog entry, and resolution rule are live.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: policyengine.simulatehidden
▸ recorded source check: irs.lookuphidden
The route, resolution rule, and catalog entry are live. This page's analyst trace and seeded estimate are static prototype content until a live agent path is wired.