Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
Direct-purchase health coverage rate, 2025
What share of people will have direct-purchase health insurance coverage in calendar year 2025 according to the Census health insurance report?
current forecast · 80% CI10.6%
9.9%10.6%11.4%
history:2020: 10.5%2021: 10.2%2022: 10.2%2023: 10.9%2024e: 10.8%
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
static prototype estimate · seeded forecast value
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- prototype seed
- agent
- prototype seed
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- ledger fact
- census.asec.direct_purchase_coverage_rate.2025
Key drivers
- Marketplace enrollment growth
- Enhanced premium tax credits
- Medicaid-to-marketplace transitions
- ASEC coverage measurement
Resolution
- source
- U.S. Census Bureau, Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2025
- expected
- September 15, 2026
- rule
- Resolves to the direct-purchase health insurance coverage rate for all people in the Census health insurance report covering calendar year 2025. The headline direct-purchase category governs, including marketplace and non-marketplace nongroup coverage.
- Data point
- census.asec.direct_purchase_coverage_rate.2025
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
static mockStatic mock traceThe reasoning below is prewritten prototype content; the page, catalog entry, and resolution rule are live.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: census.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: cms.lookuphidden
The route, resolution rule, and catalog entry are live. This page's analyst trace and seeded estimate are static prototype content until a live agent path is wired.