Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.

EITC claimant returns, TY2027

How many individual income tax returns will claim the Earned Income Tax Credit for tax year 2027?

current forecast · 80% CI23.4M
21.6M23.4M25.5M
history:TY2019: 25MTY2021: 27.5MTY2023e: 23MTY2025e: 23.2M

Trend

history + forecast
21232628TY2019TY2025eDec 202923.4M
historyforecast path80% interval

static prototype estimate · seeded forecast value

recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
record
prototype seed
agent
prototype seed
distribution
201 CDF points
ledger fact
irs.soi.eitc_claimant_returns.ty2027

Key drivers

  • Low-wage employment
  • EITC parameter indexation
  • Filing and take-up rates
  • Dependent-child claiming patterns

Resolution

source
IRS Statistics of Income individual tax return data
expected
December 31, 2029
rule
Resolves to the number of TY2027 individual income tax returns claiming the Earned Income Tax Credit, in millions, using the first official IRS Statistics of Income table covering TY2027 individual returns.
Data point
irs.soi.eitc_claimant_returns.ty2027

Analyst agent · reasoning trace

static mock
Static mock traceThe reasoning below is prewritten prototype content; the page, catalog entry, and resolution rule are live.
recorded trace replay

§

recorded source check: irs.lookuphidden
recorded source check: policyengine.simulatehidden

The route, resolution rule, and catalog entry are live. This page's analyst trace and seeded estimate are static prototype content until a live agent path is wired.

More government data forecasts