Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
Euro area HICP annual inflation, May 2026 final
What will Eurostat first report as the final euro area all-items HICP annual inflation rate for May 2026?
current forecast · 80% CI3.2%
3.1%3.2%3.3%
history:Jan: 1.7%Feb: 1.9%Mar: 2.6%Apr: 3.0%May flash: 3.2%
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% intervalactual
Euro area/Japan indicator agent ensemble · 2026-06-06T05:41:31+01:00
resolved outcomeinside 80% interval
- actual
- 3.2%
- forecast
- 3.2% with 80% CI [3.1%, 3.3%]
- error
- 0.0% · absolute 0.0%
- cdf score
- CRPS 0.022 · PIT 0.50
- source
- eurostat Annual inflation up to 3.2% in the euro area
Eurostat reported euro area annual inflation was 3.2% in May 2026.
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- June 6, 2026
- agent
- Euro area/Japan indicator agent ensemble
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- Codex recorded agent runs
- ledger fact
- eurostat.hicp.all_items_annual_rate.euro_area.may_2026.final_first_print
Key drivers
- Energy inflation
- Services inflation
- Food, alcohol and tobacco
- Flash-to-final revision pattern
Resolution
- source
- Eurostat Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices
- resolved
- June 17, 2026
- actual
- 3.2%
- rule
- Resolves to Eurostat's first final all-items HICP annual inflation rate for the euro area for May 2026. The flash estimate is input context; later revisions do not change the resolved value.
- Data point
- eurostat.hicp.all_items_annual_rate.euro_area.may_2026.final_first_print
Series design
- series
- eurostat.hicp.annual_rate
- cadence
- monthly · ~2 weeks
- horizon
- final release · first print
- priority
- P0
- benchmark
- Eurostat flash estimate and ECB inflation monitoring
- chainable
- next release · +3 months · ECB reaction
- run
- Euro area/Japan indicator agent ensemble · Codex recorded agent runs · June 6, 2026
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: eurostat.lookuphidden
▸ recorded agent run: agent.runhidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.