Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
Euro area flash HICP annual inflation, July 2026
Eurostat euro area all-items HICP annual inflation flash estimate for July 2026, year-on-year percent change, first print
current forecast · 80% CI2.6%
2.1%2.6%3.1%
history:2026-03 flash all-items annual rate: 2.6%2026-04 flash all-items annual rate: 3.0%2026-05 flash all-items annual rate: 3.2%2026-06 flash all-items annual rate: 2.8%2026-06 flash all-items monthly rate: -0.1%
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
thesis.analyst · 2026-07-04T21:26:35Z
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- July 4, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.5
- ledger fact
- eurostat.ea.hicp.flash.yoy.2026-07
Key drivers
- June flash fell to 2.8 percent from 3.2 percent in May
- June all-items monthly rate was -0.1 percent
- Energy inflation eased but remained high at 8.7 percent
- Services inflation slowed to 3.2 percent
- July flash is scheduled for 31 July 2026
Resolution
- source
- Eurostat, Euro indicators, euro area flash HICP estimate, July 2026
- expected
- July 31, 2026
- rule
- Resolves to Eurostat's first flash estimate of the euro area all-items HICP annual inflation rate for July 2026, rounded to one decimal percent as first released in the Euro indicators flash-estimate publication on 31 July 2026. Ignore the later complete HICP release and any revisions.
- Data point
- eurostat.ea.hicp.flash.yoy.2026-07
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.