Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
US total industry capacity utilization, June 2026
Federal Reserve G.17 Capacity Utilization: Total Industry, June 2026, seasonally adjusted percent of capacity, first print
current forecast · 80% CI76.2%
75.6%76.2%76.8%
history:May 2026 TCU latest mirror: 76.17%Apr 2026 TCU: 76.13%Mar 2026 TCU: 75.54%Feb 2026 TCU: 75.85%Jan 2026 TCU: 75.31%
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% intervalactual
thesis.analyst · 2026-07-08T16:53:10Z
resolved outcomeinside 80% interval
- actual
- 76.1%
- forecast
- 76.2% with 80% CI [75.6%, 76.8%]
- error
- -0.1% · absolute 0.1%
- cdf score
- CRPS 0.14 · PIT 0.43
- source
- federal_reserve_g17 G.17 Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, monthly seasonally adjusted
First print for 2026-06 captured from https://alfred.stlouisfed.org/graph/alfredgraph.csv?id=TCU&vintage_date=2026-07-17 on the official release date named by the cell's resolver.
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- July 8, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.5
- ledger fact
- fed.g17.capacity_utilization.total_industry.2026-06.first_print
Key drivers
- May utilization already rebounded to 76.2 percent
- Recent total IP growth was positive but manufacturing was flat in May
- Mining utilization strength offsets weak utilities utilization
- Capacity growth keeps utilization below its 1972-2025 average
Resolution
- source
- Federal Reserve G.17 Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization release
- resolved
- July 25, 2026
- actual
- 76.1%
- rule
- Resolve to the first-print June 2026 value, in percent of capacity and seasonally adjusted, for the G.17 Capacity utilization table row 'Total industry' as first published in the Federal Reserve's July 17, 2026 monthly G.17 release. Use the displayed one-decimal percent value; ignore later revisions, annual benchmark revisions, and later FRED updates.
- Data point
- fed.g17.capacity_utilization.total_industry.2026-06.first_print
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: fred.history_mirrorhidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.