Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
US industrial production MoM, Jun 2026
Federal Reserve G.17 Industrial Production: Total Index, seasonally adjusted, percent change from May 2026 to June 2026, first print
current forecast · 80% CI+0.2%
-0.5%+0.2%+0.9%
history:2026-05 current print: +0.1%2026-04 current print: +0.9%2026-03 current print: -0.3%2026-02 current print: +0.8%2026-01 current print: -0.4%
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% intervalactual
thesis.analyst · 2026-07-08T16:55:28Z
resolved outcomeinside 80% interval
- actual
- +0.1%
- forecast
- +0.2% with 80% CI [-0.5%, +0.9%]
- error
- -0.1% · absolute +0.1%
- cdf score
- CRPS 0.16 · PIT 0.44
- source
- federal_reserve_g17 G.17 Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, monthly seasonally adjusted
First print for 2026-06 captured from https://alfred.stlouisfed.org/graph/alfredgraph.csv?id=INDPRO&vintage_date=2026-07-17 on the official release date named by the cell's resolver.
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- July 8, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.5
- ledger fact
- fed.g17.industrial_production.total_index_mom.2026-06.first_print
Key drivers
- Recent total IP momentum is positive but choppy
- Manufacturing was flat in May after April strength
- Mining added materially in May and may mean-revert
- Utilities are weather-sensitive and widen monthly dispersion
- Capacity utilization remains below long-run average
Resolution
- source
- Federal Reserve G.17 Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization release
- resolved
- July 25, 2026
- actual
- +0.1%
- rule
- Resolve to the preliminary first-print June 2026 value for Total index, seasonally adjusted, Percent change, in the Federal Reserve G.17 Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: Summary table first issued on July 17, 2026. Use the displayed one-decimal percent value; ignore later revisions and annual benchmark revisions.
- Data point
- fed.g17.industrial_production.total_index_mom.2026-06.first_print
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: fred.lookuphidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.