Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
FOMC June 2026 decision: federal funds target range upper bound
What will the upper bound of the FOMC's federal funds target range be immediately following the June 16-17, 2026 FOMC meeting, as stated in the FOMC's June 17, 2026 monetary policy implementation note?
current forecast · 80% CI3.75%
3.5%3.75%3.75%
history:2025-07-27 to 2024-09-18 (range upper): 5.5%2024-09-19 (first cut): 5.0%2024-11-08: 4.75%2024-12-19: 4.5%2025-09-18: 4.25%2025-10-30: 4.0%2025-12-11 (current level, held 6 mtgs): 3.75%CME-implied P(hold at 3.50-3.75%) for Jun 2026: 97.1%
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% intervalactual
thesis.analyst · 2026-06-12T18:32:08Z
resolved outcomeinside 80% interval
- actual
- 3.75%
- forecast
- 3.75% with 80% CI [3.5%, 3.75%]
- error
- 0.0% · absolute 0.0%
- cdf score
- CRPS 0.076 · PIT 1.0
- source
- fed Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
FOMC maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75% on June 17, 2026.
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- June 12, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- claude-fable-5
- ledger fact
- us.fed.fomc.target_range_upper.2026-06
Key drivers
- Target range has been held at 3.50-3.75% (upper 3.75%) since the Dec 2025 cut, with no change at the Jan, Mar, and Apr 2026 meetings.
- CME FedWatch implies 97.1% probability of a hold at the June meeting vs 2.9% for a 25bp cut.
- June meeting carries a Summary of Economic Projections, but recent communications signal patience rather than imminent easing.
- A surprise cut (to 3.50% upper) would require a sharp deterioration in labor or growth data before June 17.
- A hike is effectively off the table given the current disinflationary, easing-bias backdrop.
Resolution
- source
- Federal Reserve Board / FOMC
- resolved
- June 17, 2026
- actual
- 3.75%
- rule
- Resolves to the upper limit of the target range for the federal funds rate as stated in the FOMC statement / Implementation Note issued at 2:00 PM ET on 2026-06-17, in percent (e.g. 3.75 if range is 3.50-3.75%). FRED series DFEDTARU reflects the same value.
- Data point
- us.fed.fomc.target_range_upper.2026-06
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: fed.calendarhidden
▸ recorded source check: fred.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: market.fedwatchhidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.