Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
UK Vacancies, AP2Y, 2026 JUL
What will the Office for National Statistics first print for UK Vacancies (thousands) - Total, seasonally adjusted, series AP2Y, period 2026 JUL?
current forecast · 80% CI703k
692k703k714k
history:2025-07: 737k2025-08: 729k2025-09: 728k2025-10: 730k2025-11: 739k2025-12: 734k2026-01: 725k2026-02: 718k2026-03: 713k2026-04: 710k2026-05: 711k2026-06: 707k
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
thesis.analyst · 2026-08-19T15:43:23Z
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- August 19, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.5
- ledger fact
- ons.labour.vacancies_total.2026_07.first_print
Key drivers
- Vacancies broadly flat but still easing
- Small-firm labour-cost pressure
- Weak PAYE employment backdrop
- Three-month average smooths monthly shocks
Resolution
- source
- Office for National Statistics UK Vacancies (thousands) - Total time series AP2Y
- expected
- September 15, 2026
- rule
- Resolve to the first official ONS AP2Y value for period 2026 JUL in the UK Vacancies (thousands) - Total, seasonally adjusted, UNEM time series, published for the 15 September 2026 UK labour market release. Use the integer value in thousands as first printed; ignore later revisions.
- Data point
- ons.labour.vacancies_total.2026_07.first_print
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.