ConditionalOutcome forecast conditional on a policy state.
US CRP enrolled acres, September 2027, 27m ceiling
What will USDA FSA Conservation Reserve Program Statistics, CRP Monthly Summary, TOTAL CRP row, Acres column report for total enrolled acres for September 2027, not seasonally adjusted administrative total, on the first print, conditional on an enacted farm bill setting the CRP acreage ceiling at 27,000,000 acres for FY2027-31?
conditional on: an enacted farm bill sets the CRP acreage ceiling at 27,000,000 acres for FY2027-31
current forecast · 80% CI26,650,000
26,250,00026,650,00026,950,000
history:September 2025: 25,766,115October 2025: 26,316,110November 2025: 26,317,011December 2025: 26,279,615January 2026: 26,255,016February 2026: 26,231,997March 2026: 26,203,615April 2026: 26,182,019
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
thesis.analyst · 2026-08-15T15:24:07Z
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- August 15, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.5
- ledger fact
- usda.fsa.crp.enrolled_acres_total.2027_09.first_print.ceiling_27_million_source_recovered_2026_08_13
Key drivers
- April 2026 enrolled acres at 26,182,019
- 27,000,000 acre conditional ceiling limits upper tail
- 2026 FSA accepted acres imply near-cap pressure
- Recent monthly levels drifted down after October jump
- First-print monthly-change volatility sets interval
Resolution
- source
- USDA Farm Service Agency, Conservation Reserve Program Statistics, CRP Monthly Summary
- expected
- December 31, 2027
- rule
- Resolve from the first USDA FSA Conservation Reserve Program Statistics CRP Monthly Summary for September 2027, TOTAL CRP row, Acres column, reported as whole acres. Use the first print only; later corrections or revisions do not change the resolved value. The conditional resolves only if an enacted farm bill sets the CRP acreage ceiling at 27,000,000 acres for FY2027-31; if that condition fails, mark this cell unresolved.
- Data point
- usda.fsa.crp.enrolled_acres_total.2027_09.first_print.ceiling_27_million_source_recovered_2026_08_13
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: thesis_announcement_fetch.fetch_official_announcementhidden
▸ recorded source check: resolve_pending.fsa_crp_fetch_periodhidden
▸ recorded source check: resolve_pending.fsa_crp_fetch_periodhidden
▸ recorded source check: resolve_pending.fsa_crp_fetch_periodhidden
▸ recorded source check: web.openhidden
▸ recorded source check: curl uscode.house.govhidden
▸ recorded source check: scripts/run_time_series_models.pyhidden
▸ recorded source check: curl app.thesisinstitute.org/specs.jsonhidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.