ConditionalOutcome forecast conditional on a policy state.
Federal individual income tax revenue FY2028 | SALT cap fully repealed
Conditional on the SALT deduction cap being repealed in full (no cap) for tax years 2026 and later, what will federal individual income tax revenue be in FY2028 (in billions of nominal dollars)?
conditional on: IRC §164(b)(6) SALT cap fully eliminated for TY2026 and later
current forecast · 80% CI$2,790
$2,630$2,790$2,960
history:FY2024: $2,426FY2025e: $2,520FY2026e: $2,640FY2027e: $2,740
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
static prototype estimate · seeded forecast value
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- prototype seed
- agent
- prototype seed
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- ledger fact
- treasury.mts.individual_income_tax.fy2028
Key drivers
- Itemizer redistribution effect
- Behavioral response (state tax migration, charitable shifts)
- Underlying nominal income growth
Resolution
- source
- U.S. Treasury Monthly Statement (final September FY2028)
- expected
- October 20, 2028
- rule
- Resolves to total individual income tax receipts for FY2028 as reported in the Monthly Treasury Statement covering September 2028, conditional on the SALT deduction cap under IRC §164(b)(6) being fully eliminated for TY2026 and later. If the cap is not fully eliminated, the forecast cell is marked unresolved.
- Data point
- treasury.mts.individual_income_tax.fy2028
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
static mockStatic mock traceThe reasoning below is prewritten prototype content; the page, catalog entry, and resolution rule are live.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: policyengine.simulatehidden
▸ recorded source check: cbo.lookuphidden
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▸ recorded source check: policyengine.simulatehidden
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The route, resolution rule, and catalog entry are live. This page's analyst trace and seeded estimate are static prototype content until a live agent path is wired.