Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
Individual income tax refunds, FY2026
What will total federal individual income tax refunds be in fiscal year 2026 as reported by the U.S. Treasury?
current forecast · 80% CI$486B
$455B$486B$525B
history:FY2021: $402BFY2022: $369BFY2023: $458BFY2024: $493BFY2025e: $474B
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
static prototype estimate · seeded forecast value
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- prototype seed
- agent
- prototype seed
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- ledger fact
- treasury.mts.individual_income_tax_refunds.fy2026
Key drivers
- Withholding and estimated-tax overpayment
- Refundable tax credit claiming
- IRS processing timing
- Nominal wage and liability growth
Resolution
- source
- U.S. Treasury Monthly Treasury Statement, September 2026
- expected
- October 20, 2026
- rule
- Resolves to total individual income tax refunds for fiscal year 2026 in the final Monthly Treasury Statement for September 2026. If Treasury revises the table after the initial final MTS release, the first final fiscal-year table governs.
- Data point
- treasury.mts.individual_income_tax_refunds.fy2026
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
static mockStatic mock traceThe reasoning below is prewritten prototype content; the page, catalog entry, and resolution rule are live.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: treasury.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: policyengine.simulatehidden
The route, resolution rule, and catalog entry are live. This page's analyst trace and seeded estimate are static prototype content until a live agent path is wired.