Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.

Federal individual income tax revenue, FY2027

What will total federal individual income tax revenue be for fiscal year 2027 in nominal dollars, as published in the Monthly Treasury Statement?

current forecast · 80% CI$2,740
$2,580$2,740$2,910
history:FY2023: $2,176FY2024: $2,426FY2025e: $2,520FY2026e: $2,640

Trend

history + forecast
$2,059$2,382$2,704$3,027FY2023FY2026eOct 2027$2,740
historyforecast path80% interval

static prototype estimate · seeded forecast value

recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
record
prototype seed
agent
prototype seed
distribution
201 CDF points
ledger fact
treasury.mts.individual_income_tax.fy2027

Key drivers

  • TCJA extension status
  • Capital gains realizations
  • Nominal income growth
  • Withholding vs. nonwithheld mix

Resolution

source
U.S. Treasury Monthly Statement (final September FY2027)
expected
October 20, 2027
rule
Resolves to total individual income tax receipts for FY2027 as reported in the Monthly Treasury Statement covering September 2027, in billions of nominal dollars.
Data point
treasury.mts.individual_income_tax.fy2027

Analyst agent · reasoning trace

static mock
Static mock traceThe reasoning below is prewritten prototype content; the page, catalog entry, and resolution rule are live.
recorded trace replay

§

§

recorded source check: policyengine.simulatehidden
recorded source check: policyengine.simulatehidden
recorded source check: cbo.lookuphidden

§

§

The route, resolution rule, and catalog entry are live. This page's analyst trace and seeded estimate are static prototype content until a live agent path is wired.

More government data forecasts