Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
IRS cumulative refunds, October 2026
What total refund amount will IRS report in its first October 2026 filing-season statistics snapshot for current-year individual returns?
current forecast · 80% CI$370B
$360B$370B$382B
history:May 2023: $287BMay 2024: $294BMay 2025: $275BMay 2026: $324.8B
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
static prototype estimate · seeded forecast value
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- prototype seed
- agent
- prototype seed
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- ledger fact
- irs.filing_season.total_amount_refunded.october_2026.first_print
Key drivers
- Refund count
- Average refund
- Processing pace
- Refundable credits
Resolution
- source
- IRS Filing Season Statistics
- expected
- October 31, 2026
- rule
- Resolves to IRS Filing Season Statistics total amount refunded for current-year individual returns in the first October 2026 snapshot. If IRS publishes multiple October snapshots, the earliest October table governs.
- Data point
- irs.filing_season.total_amount_refunded.october_2026.first_print
Series design
- series
- irs.filing_season.total_refunds
- cadence
- monthly · ~4 months
- horizon
- +3 months · first print
- priority
- P1
- benchmark
- Historical May-to-October refund additions
- chainable
- next release · +3 months · refundable-credit mix
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
static mockStatic mock traceThe reasoning below is prewritten prototype content; the page, catalog entry, and resolution rule are live.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: irs.lookuphidden
The route, resolution rule, and catalog entry are live. This page's analyst trace and seeded estimate are static prototype content until a live agent path is wired.