Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
Japan CPI annual inflation, May 2026
What will the Statistics Bureau of Japan first report as the national all-items CPI annual inflation rate for May 2026?
current forecast · 80% CI1.5%
1.1%1.5%1.9%
history:Feb: 1.7%Mar: 1.5%Apr: 1.4%
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% intervalactual
Euro area/Japan indicator agent ensemble · 2026-06-06T05:41:31+01:00
resolved outcomeinside 80% interval
- actual
- 1.5%
- forecast
- 1.5% with 80% CI [1.1%, 1.9%]
- error
- 0.0% · absolute 0.0%
- cdf score
- CRPS 0.087 · PIT 0.50
- source
- statjp Consumer Price Index, May 2026
Statistics Bureau of Japan May 2026 national CPI release reported all items CPI rose 1.5% year over year.
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- June 6, 2026
- agent
- Euro area/Japan indicator agent ensemble
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- Codex recorded agent runs
- ledger fact
- statjp.cpi.all_items_annual_rate.japan.may_2026.first_print
Key drivers
- April national CPI at 1.4%
- Tokyo preliminary CPI signal
- Energy and food prices
- Yen import-price pass-through
Resolution
- source
- Statistics Bureau of Japan Consumer Price Index
- resolved
- June 19, 2026
- actual
- 1.5%
- rule
- Resolves to the first published national all-items CPI annual rate for May 2026 in the Statistics Bureau of Japan Consumer Price Index release. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.
- Data point
- statjp.cpi.all_items_annual_rate.japan.may_2026.first_print
Series design
- series
- statjp.cpi.annual_rate
- cadence
- monthly · ~3 weeks
- horizon
- next release · first print
- priority
- P0
- benchmark
- Tokyo preliminary CPI and BOJ inflation outlook
- chainable
- next release · +3 months · BOJ reaction
- run
- Euro area/Japan indicator agent ensemble · Codex recorded agent runs · June 6, 2026
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
§
▸ recorded source check: statjp.lookuphidden
▸ recorded agent run: agent.runhidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.