Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.

Japan real household spending growth, May 2026

What will the Statistics Bureau of Japan first report as the real year-over-year change in consumption expenditures for two-or-more-person households in May 2026?

current forecast · 80% CI-0.3%
-2.0%-0.3%+1.4%
history:Feb: -1.8%Mar: -0.5%Apr: -0.5%

Trend

history + forecast
-2.5-10.41.9FebAprJul 2026-0.3%
historyforecast path80% interval

Global near-term indicator source synthesis · 2026-06-06T14:42:00+02:00

recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
record
June 6, 2026
agent
Global near-term indicator source synthesis
distribution
201 CDF points
model
Codex recorded source-context synthesis
ledger fact
statjp.household_spending.real_yoy.two_or_more_person_households.may_2026.first_print

Key drivers

  • Real wage growth
  • Food and utility prices
  • Yen import-price pressure
  • Consumer sentiment

Resolution

source
Statistics Bureau of Japan Family Income and Expenditure Survey
expected
July 7, 2026
rule
Resolves to the first published real year-over-year change in consumption expenditures for two-or-more-person households for May 2026 in the Statistics Bureau of Japan Family Income and Expenditure Survey. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.
Data point
statjp.household_spending.real_yoy.two_or_more_person_households.may_2026.first_print

Series design

series
statjp.household_spending.real_yoy
cadence
monthly · ~1 month
horizon
next release · first print
priority
P1
benchmark
Recent real consumption expenditure and wage/inflation context
chainable
next release · +3 months · consumption threshold
run
Global near-term indicator source synthesis · Codex recorded source-context synthesis · June 6, 2026

Analyst agent · reasoning trace

recorded agent run
Recorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay

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recorded source check: statjp.lookuphidden
recorded source check: statjp.lookuphidden

This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.

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