Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
Japan real household spending growth, May 2026
What will the Statistics Bureau of Japan first report as the real year-over-year change in consumption expenditures for two-or-more-person households in May 2026?
current forecast · 80% CI-0.3%
-2.0%-0.3%+1.4%
history:Feb: -1.8%Mar: -0.5%Apr: -0.5%
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
Global near-term indicator source synthesis · 2026-06-06T14:42:00+02:00
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- June 6, 2026
- agent
- Global near-term indicator source synthesis
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- Codex recorded source-context synthesis
- ledger fact
- statjp.household_spending.real_yoy.two_or_more_person_households.may_2026.first_print
Key drivers
- Real wage growth
- Food and utility prices
- Yen import-price pressure
- Consumer sentiment
Resolution
- source
- Statistics Bureau of Japan Family Income and Expenditure Survey
- expected
- July 7, 2026
- rule
- Resolves to the first published real year-over-year change in consumption expenditures for two-or-more-person households for May 2026 in the Statistics Bureau of Japan Family Income and Expenditure Survey. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.
- Data point
- statjp.household_spending.real_yoy.two_or_more_person_households.may_2026.first_print
Series design
- series
- statjp.household_spending.real_yoy
- cadence
- monthly · ~1 month
- horizon
- next release · first print
- priority
- P1
- benchmark
- Recent real consumption expenditure and wage/inflation context
- chainable
- next release · +3 months · consumption threshold
- run
- Global near-term indicator source synthesis · Codex recorded source-context synthesis · June 6, 2026
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
§
▸ recorded source check: statjp.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: statjp.lookuphidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.