Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
US JOLTS quits rate, Jun 2026
BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey Table 4 total nonfarm quits rate, seasonally adjusted, June 2026, first print
current forecast · 80% CI1.9%
1.8%1.9%2.0%
history:May 2026 quits rate, SA total nonfarm: 1.9%Apr 2026 quits rate, SA total nonfarm: 1.9%Mar 2026 quits rate, SA total nonfarm: 2.0%Feb 2026 quits rate, SA total nonfarm: 1.9%Jan 2026 quits rate, SA total nonfarm: 2.0%
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
thesis.analyst · 2026-07-07T14:01:13Z
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- July 7, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.5
- ledger fact
- bls.jolts.quits_rate.2026-06.first_print
Key drivers
- Quits rate has been range-bound at 1.9 to 2.0 percent in early 2026
- May 2026 total quits rate was unchanged at 1.9 percent
- June payroll growth slowed to 57,000, limiting upside pressure on voluntary quits
- Unemployment stayed low at 4.2 percent, preventing a sharp downside adjustment
- BLS reports the target to one decimal, so small latent moves often round to no change
Resolution
- source
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey Table 4
- expected
- August 4, 2026
- rule
- Resolve to the first BLS-published seasonally adjusted total nonfarm quits rate for June 2026 in JOLTS Table 4, released on 2026-08-04 at 10:00 AM ET. Use the preliminary first-print rate as reported to one decimal percent; capture the August 4, 2026 first-print Table 4 or the BLS archived release/table for that release when available, and ignore later monthly revisions, benchmark updates, or annual seasonal-adjustment updates.
- Data point
- bls.jolts.quits_rate.2026-06.first_print
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: history.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.