Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
Marketplace new consumers, OEP 2027
How many new consumers will select ACA Marketplace plans during the 2027 open enrollment period according to CMS?
current forecast · 80% CI3.2M
2.4M3.2M4.4M
history:OEP 2023: 3.6MOEP 2024: 5.2MOEP 2025: 5.6MOEP 2026e: 4.1M
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
static prototype estimate · seeded forecast value
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- prototype seed
- agent
- prototype seed
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- ledger fact
- cms.marketplace.new_consumers.oep_2027
Key drivers
- Enhanced PTC policy state
- Medicaid redetermination spillover
- Premium growth
- Navigator and broker activity
Resolution
- source
- CMS Marketplace Open Enrollment Period public use files for plan year 2027
- expected
- March 31, 2027
- rule
- Resolves to the CMS national count of new consumers selecting Marketplace plans during the 2027 open enrollment period. If CMS reports HealthCare.gov and state-based marketplace totals separately, the national total combining both governs.
- Data point
- cms.marketplace.new_consumers.oep_2027
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
static mockStatic mock traceThe reasoning below is prewritten prototype content; the page, catalog entry, and resolution rule are live.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: cms.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: policyengine.simulatehidden
The route, resolution rule, and catalog entry are live. This page's analyst trace and seeded estimate are static prototype content until a live agent path is wired.