Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
Medicaid call-center wait, March 2027 (unconditional)
What will the national average Medicaid call-center wait time be in the March 2027 reporting period, per the CMS eligibility and enrollment dataset?
current forecast · 80% CI29.4 min
19.7 min29.4 min38.4 min
history:05/25: 7.3 min09/25: 15 min12/25: 16.4 min02/26: 24 min
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
static prototype estimate · seeded forecast value
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- prototype seed
- agent
- prototype seed
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- ledger fact
- cms.medicaid_pi.call_center_wait_minutes.us.mar_2027
Key drivers
- Probability-weighted mixture of the two policy-state arms
- Work-requirement implementation call volume
- Call-center staffing responses
- Renewal and churn baseline volume
Resolution
- source
- CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Applications, Eligibility Determinations, and Enrollment Data (data.medicaid.gov)
- expected
- July 31, 2027
- rule
- Resolves to the volume-weighted national average Medicaid call-center wait time in minutes for the March 2027 reporting period, computed across all reporting jurisdictions in CMS dataset 6165f45b-ca93-5bb5-9d06-db29c692a360 (each jurisdiction's average wait weighted by its total call volume, latest submission per jurisdiction), when CMS first publishes the period. Unconditional: this cell resolves regardless of the policy state.
- Data point
- cms.medicaid_pi.call_center_wait_minutes.us.mar_2027
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
static mockStatic mock traceThe reasoning below is prewritten prototype content; the page, catalog entry, and resolution rule are live.
recorded trace replay
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The route, resolution rule, and catalog entry are live. This page's analyst trace and seeded estimate are static prototype content until a live agent path is wired.