Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
Medicaid and CHIP child enrollment, December 2027
How many children will be enrolled in Medicaid or CHIP in December 2027?
current forecast · 80% CI36.8M
34.5M36.8M39.4M
history:Dec 2021: 40MSep 2024: 37.6MDec 2025e: 36.9MDec 2026e: 36.7M
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
static prototype estimate · seeded forecast value
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- prototype seed
- agent
- prototype seed
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- ledger fact
- cms.medicaid_chip.child_enrollment.2027-12
Key drivers
- Post-unwinding renewals
- Continuous eligibility for children
- State CHIP premiums
- Low-income child population
Resolution
- source
- CMS Medicaid and CHIP monthly enrollment data
- expected
- April 30, 2028
- rule
- Resolves to Medicaid child and CHIP enrollment for December 2027, in millions, using the first CMS monthly Medicaid and CHIP enrollment report or data.Medicaid.gov release that reports the child-enrollment series for that month.
- Data point
- cms.medicaid_chip.child_enrollment.2027-12
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
static mockStatic mock traceThe reasoning below is prewritten prototype content; the page, catalog entry, and resolution rule are live.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: cms.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: policyengine.simulatehidden
The route, resolution rule, and catalog entry are live. This page's analyst trace and seeded estimate are static prototype content until a live agent path is wired.