Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
Medicaid and CHIP enrollment, Apr 2026
How many people will be enrolled in Medicaid and CHIP in April 2026 according to CMS monthly enrollment data?
current forecast · 80% CI79.1M
76.2M79.1M82.6M
history:Oct: 79.6MNov: 79.4MDec: 79.2MJan: 79M
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
static prototype estimate · seeded forecast value
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- prototype seed
- agent
- prototype seed
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- ledger fact
- cms.medicaid_chip.enrollment.april_2026
Key drivers
- Post-unwinding renewal policy
- Income eligibility
- Ex parte renewal success
- Marketplace transition flow
Resolution
- source
- CMS Medicaid and CHIP monthly enrollment data
- expected
- September 30, 2026
- rule
- Resolves to the national Medicaid and CHIP enrollment total for April 2026 in CMS monthly enrollment data. If CMS posts preliminary and updated versions, the first updated national file available by September 30, 2026 governs.
- Data point
- cms.medicaid_chip.enrollment.april_2026
Series design
- series
- cms.medicaid_chip.enrollment
- cadence
- monthly · ~2-3 months
- horizon
- +3 months · fixed vintage
- priority
- P0
- benchmark
- PolicyEngine eligibility/take-up prior
- chainable
- next release · +3 months · +12 months · threshold
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
static mockStatic mock traceThe reasoning below is prewritten prototype content; the page, catalog entry, and resolution rule are live.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: cms.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: policyengine.simulatehidden
The route, resolution rule, and catalog entry are live. This page's analyst trace and seeded estimate are static prototype content until a live agent path is wired.