Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
Medicaid and CHIP enrollment, Dec 2026
How many people will be enrolled in Medicaid and CHIP in December 2026 according to CMS monthly enrollment data?
current forecast · 80% CI79.4M
75.8M79.4M83.8M
history:Dec 2021: 86.7MDec 2022: 91.3MDec 2023: 85.9MDec 2024: 79.7MDec 2025e: 78.9M
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
static prototype estimate · seeded forecast value
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- prototype seed
- agent
- prototype seed
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- ledger fact
- cms.medicaid_chip.enrollment.dec_2026
Key drivers
- Post-unwinding renewal policy
- Child and adult eligibility thresholds
- Employment and income growth
- State ex parte renewal performance
Resolution
- source
- CMS Medicaid and CHIP monthly enrollment data, December 2026
- expected
- June 30, 2027
- rule
- Resolves to the national Medicaid and CHIP enrollment total for December 2026 in CMS monthly enrollment data. If CMS publishes preliminary and updated files, the first updated national file posted by June 30, 2027 governs.
- Data point
- cms.medicaid_chip.enrollment.dec_2026
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
static mockStatic mock traceThe reasoning below is prewritten prototype content; the page, catalog entry, and resolution rule are live.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: cms.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: policyengine.simulatehidden
The route, resolution rule, and catalog entry are live. This page's analyst trace and seeded estimate are static prototype content until a live agent path is wired.