Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
Medicaid and CHIP enrollment, Dec 2027
What will total Medicaid and CHIP enrollment be in December 2027, as reported by CMS?
current forecast · 80% CI82M
77M82M88M
history:Dec 2021: 87MDec 2022: 93MDec 2023: 85MDec 2025e: 81M
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
static prototype estimate · seeded forecast value
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- prototype seed
- agent
- prototype seed
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- ledger fact
- cms.medicaid_chip.enrollment.2027-12
Key drivers
- Post-unwinding churn
- Unemployment and income eligibility
- State renewal automation
- ACA subsidy and marketplace substitution
Resolution
- source
- CMS Medicaid and CHIP enrollment reports
- expected
- June 30, 2028
- rule
- Resolves to total Medicaid and CHIP enrollment for December 2027 in the CMS monthly enrollment report, in millions of people, using the first report that includes all-state December data.
- Data point
- cms.medicaid_chip.enrollment.2027-12
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
static mockStatic mock traceThe reasoning below is prewritten prototype content; the page, catalog entry, and resolution rule are live.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: policyengine.simulatehidden
▸ recorded source check: cms.lookuphidden
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The route, resolution rule, and catalog entry are live. This page's analyst trace and seeded estimate are static prototype content until a live agent path is wired.