Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
Medicaid and CHIP enrollment, March 2026
How many people will CMS report enrolled in Medicaid and CHIP for March 2026 in preliminary monthly enrollment data?
current forecast · 80% CI74.4M
74M74.4M74.8M
history:Nov: 76.2MDec: 75.6MJan: 75.1MFeb: 74.9M
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
static prototype estimate · seeded forecast value
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- prototype seed
- agent
- prototype seed
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- ledger fact
- cms.medicaid_chip.total_enrollment.march_2026.fixed_vintage
Key drivers
- Renewals and redeterminations
- State processing
- Labor-market income
- CHIP churn
Resolution
- source
- CMS Medicaid and CHIP monthly enrollment data
- expected
- July 31, 2026
- rule
- Resolves to CMS preliminary March 2026 total Medicaid and CHIP enrollment for the 50 states and DC, using the first monthly enrollment update available by July 31, 2026. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.
- Data point
- cms.medicaid_chip.total_enrollment.march_2026.fixed_vintage
Series design
- series
- cms.medicaid_chip.monthly_enrollment
- cadence
- monthly · ~3 months
- horizon
- next release · fixed vintage
- priority
- P1
- benchmark
- Recent monthly CMS trend
- chainable
- next release · +3 months · coverage impact
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
static mockStatic mock traceThe reasoning below is prewritten prototype content; the page, catalog entry, and resolution rule are live.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: cms.lookuphidden
The route, resolution rule, and catalog entry are live. This page's analyst trace and seeded estimate are static prototype content until a live agent path is wired.