Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
Maryland Medicaid procedural share of disenrollments, August 2026
What share of Maryland Medicaid beneficiaries disenrolled at renewal in the August 2026 reporting period will be disenrolled for procedural reasons, per the CMS eligibility processing dataset?
current forecast · 80% CI89.3%
83.5%89.3%95.1%
history:07/25: 84.5%09/25: 84.1%11/25: 87.4%01/26: 85.3%
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
static prototype estimate · seeded forecast value
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- prototype seed
- agent
- prototype seed
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- ledger fact
- cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.md.aug_2026
Key drivers
- Ex parte expansion concentrating residual disenrollments into paperwork cases
- Notice redesign and outreach investments
- Renewal cohort mix month to month
- Eligibility policy changes shifting the determined-ineligible denominator
Resolution
- source
- CMS, State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data (data.medicaid.gov)
- expected
- December 15, 2026
- rule
- Resolves to Maryland's procedural share of disenrollments for the August 2026 reporting period, computed from the original (O) submission row in CMS dataset 5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c when CMS first publishes it (expected roughly three to four months after the period). Numerator and denominator as published; share computed to one decimal.
- Data point
- cms.medicaid_pi.procedural_disenrollment_share.md.aug_2026
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
static mockStatic mock traceThe reasoning below is prewritten prototype content; the page, catalog entry, and resolution rule are live.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: cms.lookuphidden
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The route, resolution rule, and catalog entry are live. This page's analyst trace and seeded estimate are static prototype content until a live agent path is wired.