Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
Nonfarm payrolls, May 2026
How many jobs will be added to total nonfarm payroll employment in May 2026 in the first BLS Employment Situation release?
current forecast · 80% CI85k
-60k85k220k
history:Feb: -156kMar: 185kApr: 115k3mo avg: 48k
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% intervalactual
static prototype estimate · seeded forecast value
resolved outcomeinside 80% interval
- actual
- 172k
- forecast
- 85k with 80% CI [-60k, 220k]
- error
- +87k · absolute 87k
- cdf score
- CRPS 52.9 · PIT 0.76
- source
- Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation, May 2026
BLS first reported total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 172,000 in May 2026.
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- prototype seed
- agent
- prototype seed
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- ledger fact
- bls.ces.total_nonfarm_payroll_change.may_2026.first_print
Key drivers
- Private payroll diffusion
- Government hiring
- Birth-death model residual
- Weather and strike effects
Resolution
- source
- Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation first release
- resolved
- June 5, 2026
- actual
- 172k
- rule
- Resolves to the first published May 2026 over-the-month change in total nonfarm payroll employment in the BLS Employment Situation release. Benchmark revisions and later monthly revisions do not change the resolved value.
- Data point
- bls.ces.total_nonfarm_payroll_change.may_2026.first_print
Series design
- series
- bls.ces.total_nonfarm_payroll_change
- cadence
- monthly · ~1 week
- horizon
- next release · first print
- priority
- P0
- benchmark
- Published consensus survey medians
- chainable
- next release · +3 months · +12 months · threshold
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
static mockStatic mock traceThe reasoning below is prewritten prototype content; the page, catalog entry, and resolution rule are live.
recorded trace replay
§
▸ recorded source check: bls.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: consensus.lookuphidden
The route, resolution rule, and catalog entry are live. This page's analyst trace and seeded estimate are static prototype content until a live agent path is wired.