Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
Federal payroll tax receipts, FY2027
What will total federal payroll tax receipts be in fiscal year 2027, in nominal dollars?
current forecast · 80% CI$1,860B
$1,760B$1,860B$1,985B
history:FY2021: $1,312BFY2023: $1,614BFY2025e: $1,735BFY2026e: $1,800B
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
static prototype estimate · seeded forecast value
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- prototype seed
- agent
- prototype seed
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- ledger fact
- treasury.mts.social_insurance_receipts.fy2027
Key drivers
- Aggregate wage growth
- Employment level
- Taxable maximum indexation
- Self-employment income
Resolution
- source
- U.S. Treasury Monthly Statement
- expected
- October 20, 2027
- rule
- Resolves to total federal social insurance and retirement receipts for FY2027, in billions of nominal dollars, as reported in the final September FY2027 Monthly Treasury Statement.
- Data point
- treasury.mts.social_insurance_receipts.fy2027
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
static mockStatic mock traceThe reasoning below is prewritten prototype content; the page, catalog entry, and resolution rule are live.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: policyengine.simulatehidden
▸ recorded source check: treasury.lookuphidden
The route, resolution rule, and catalog entry are live. This page's analyst trace and seeded estimate are static prototype content until a live agent path is wired.