Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
ACA PTC average subsidy per enrollee, FY2027
What will the average monthly ACA premium tax credit subsidy per subsidized marketplace enrollee be in fiscal year 2027?
current forecast · 80% CI$690/mo
$560/mo$690/mo$860/mo
history:FY2020: $520/moFY2022: $575/moFY2024: $650/moFY2026e: $720/mo
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
static prototype estimate · seeded forecast value
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- prototype seed
- agent
- prototype seed
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- ledger fact
- cms.marketplace.ptc.average_subsidy_per_enrollee.fy2027
Key drivers
- Enhanced PTC extension status
- Benchmark silver premiums
- Income mix of remaining enrollees
- Plan switching and silver loading
Resolution
- source
- CMS marketplace and Treasury outlay tables
- expected
- June 30, 2028
- rule
- Resolves to average monthly premium tax credit subsidy per subsidized marketplace enrollee for FY2027, computed from official CMS enrollment and Treasury/CMS PTC outlay tables when both are available.
- Data point
- cms.marketplace.ptc.average_subsidy_per_enrollee.fy2027
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
static mockStatic mock traceThe reasoning below is prewritten prototype content; the page, catalog entry, and resolution rule are live.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: cms.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: policyengine.simulatehidden
The route, resolution rule, and catalog entry are live. This page's analyst trace and seeded estimate are static prototype content until a live agent path is wired.