Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
Real GDP growth, 2026 (Q4/Q4)
What will real GDP growth be from Q4 2025 to Q4 2026 (year-over-year, fourth-quarter basis), as published by BEA?
current forecast · 80% CI+1.9%
+0.9%+1.9%+2.8%
history:2022: +0.6%2023: +3.2%2024: +2.5%2025e: +2.1%
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
static prototype estimate · seeded forecast value
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- prototype seed
- agent
- prototype seed
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- ledger fact
- bea.gdpc1.q4q4.2026
Key drivers
- Business investment in AI / data center buildout
- Consumer spending resilience
- Net exports under tariff regime
- Government spending trajectory
Resolution
- source
- BEA GDP advance estimate (Q4 2026)
- expected
- January 28, 2027
- rule
- Resolves to the Q4/Q4 real GDP growth rate for 2026 as published in the BEA Q4 2026 advance estimate (late January 2027).
- Data point
- bea.gdpc1.q4q4.2026
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
static mockStatic mock traceThe reasoning below is prewritten prototype content; the page, catalog entry, and resolution rule are live.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: policyengine.simulatehidden
▸ recorded source check: policyengine.simulatehidden
▸ recorded source check: fed.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: cbo.lookuphidden
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The route, resolution rule, and catalog entry are live. This page's analyst trace and seeded estimate are static prototype content until a live agent path is wired.