ConditionalOutcome forecast conditional on a policy state.
SNAP payment error rate FY 2026 | cost-share repealed or delayed
Conditional on a federal statute enacted on or before June 30, 2027 repealing or delaying the 2025 reconciliation law's SNAP state cost-share provision, what will the national SNAP payment error rate be for fiscal year 2026?
conditional on: SNAP state cost-share provision repealed or delayed by statute enacted on or before 2027-06-30
current forecast · 80% CI10.3%
9.0%10.3%11.7%
history:FY 2023: 11.68%FY 2024: 10.93%FY 2025e: 10.2%
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
static prototype estimate · seeded forecast value
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- prototype seed
- agent
- prototype seed
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- ledger fact
- fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.us.fy2026.cost_share_repealed
Key drivers
- Incentive removal: states facing no match relax corrective-action urgency
- Repeal scenarios correlate with broader SNAP policy turbulence
- Improvement momentum already funded carries partway through FY 2026
- Caseload churn
Resolution
- source
- USDA FNS, SNAP Quality Control Payment Error Rates, FY 2026
- expected
- June 30, 2027
- rule
- Resolves to the national combined SNAP payment error rate for fiscal year 2026 in the official FNS QC release (first print, expected around June 2027), conditional on the event 'a federal statute enacted on or before 2027-06-30 repeals or delays the SNAP state cost-share provisions of the 2025 reconciliation law.' If the conditioning event fails, the cell is marked unresolved. Exactly one cell of the cost-share pair resolves; the gap between the two arms (9.4 vs 10.3) is the forecasted effect of the policy on payment accuracy.
- Data point
- fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.us.fy2026.cost_share_repealed
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
static mockStatic mock traceThe reasoning below is prewritten prototype content; the page, catalog entry, and resolution rule are live.
recorded trace replay
§
▸ recorded source check: ledger.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: fns.lookuphidden
§
The route, resolution rule, and catalog entry are live. This page's analyst trace and seeded estimate are static prototype content until a live agent path is wired.