Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
Missouri SNAP payment error rate, FY 2026
What will Missouri's SNAP payment error rate be for fiscal year 2026, as published in the USDA FNS quality control release?
current forecast · 80% CI8.7%
6.7%8.7%10.7%
history:FY 2024: 9.42%FY 2025: 8.67%
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
thesis.analyst · 2026-06-25T03:51:27Z
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- June 25, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5-codex
- ledger fact
- fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.mo.fy2026
Key drivers
- FY 2025 official first print as the strongest base-rate prior
- FY 2024 to FY 2025 panel delta distribution for shrinkage
- SNAP state cost-share exposure treated as a weak directional update until scored
- QC sampling, arbitration, and caseload-composition noise
Resolution
- source
- USDA FNS, SNAP Quality Control Payment Error Rates, FY 2026
- expected
- June 30, 2027
- rule
- Resolves to Missouri's combined SNAP payment error rate (overpayments plus underpayments) for fiscal year 2026 in the official FNS QC release, first print. FNS released FY 2025 rates on June 24, 2026; the FY 2026 release is expected around June 2027.
- Data point
- fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.mo.fy2026
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
Recorded research run from before on-repo activity archives (June 28, 2026); steps reflect real activity without archived receipts.
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▸ recorded source check: ledger.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: catalog.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: panel.deltahidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.