Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
US senior SPM poverty rate, 2025
What will the U.S. Census Bureau first report as the Supplemental Poverty Measure poverty rate for people age 65 years and older for calendar year 2025 in Poverty in the United States: 2025, Table B-2 or successor first-release table?
current forecast · 80% CI15.3%
13.1%15.3%17.5%
history:2024 first print age 65+ SPM poverty rate: 15.0%2023 first print age 65+ SPM poverty rate: 14.2%2022 first print age 65+ SPM poverty rate: 14.1%2021 first print age 65+ SPM poverty rate: 10.7%2024 all-person SPM poverty rate: 12.9%
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
thesis.analyst · 2026-07-08T20:30:10Z
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- July 8, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.5
- ledger fact
- census.spm.poverty_rate_65_plus.2025.first_print
Key drivers
- Latest same-variant senior SPM rate was 15.0 percent in 2024
- Senior SPM includes taxes, credits, transfers, medical out-of-pocket expenses, and housing adjustments, not just pretax cash income
- 2024 senior SPM rose despite flat all-person SPM, showing age-specific medical and threshold pressure
- Social Security COLA supports nominal resources but medical premiums and out-of-pocket costs remain senior-specific downside risk
- No 2025 policy shock comparable to pandemic-era temporary transfers is assumed
Resolution
- source
- U.S. Census Bureau Poverty in the United States: 2025 first-release tables
- expected
- September 8, 2026
- rule
- Resolve to the first Census Bureau published calendar-year 2025 Supplemental Poverty Measure poverty rate for people age 65 years and older, reported in percent, normally Table B-2 of Poverty in the United States: 2025. Use the initially released value rounded to one decimal percentage point; ignore later errata, benchmark updates, revised CPS ASEC files, or later table revisions unless Census labels the original first print as withdrawn before public release.
- Data point
- census.spm.poverty_rate_65_plus.2025.first_print
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.