Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
SSI recipients aged 65+ June 2026
Social Security Administration SSI Monthly Statistics Table 1 number of recipients, all federally administered payments, Total row, Age 65 or older column, June 2026, first print
current forecast · 80% CI2.5m
2.5m2.5m2.51m
history:2026-05 latest first-print proxy: 2.5m2026-04: 2.5m2026-03: 2.5m2026-02: 2.51m2026-01: 2.51m2025-06 year-earlier June: 2.48m
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
thesis.analyst · 2026-07-08T20:13:39Z
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- July 8, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.5
- ledger fact
- ssa.ssi.recipients_aged_65_plus.2026_06.first_print
Key drivers
- Aged-65-plus SSI caseload has risen year over year
- Early-2026 level drifted down from January to April before a small May rebound
- Same-variant May-to-June 2025 change was positive but modest
- No new benefit-level policy shock is assumed for June 2026
Resolution
- source
- Social Security Administration SSI Monthly Statistics
- expected
- July 31, 2026
- rule
- Resolve to the first published June 2026 value in SSA SSI Monthly Statistics Table 1, All Federally Administered Payments, Number of recipients, row Total, column Age 65 or older. SSA publishes whole recipient counts; convert to thousands by dividing by 1,000 and report to the same 0.001-thousand precision implied by whole recipients. Use the first official print only and ignore later revisions or returned-check adjustments after the first June 2026 table is posted. SSA's public schedule provides month-level monthly timing rather than a specific day; 2026-07-31 is the catalog latest expected resolution by-date for the June 2026 monthly publication, not a claimed exact release day.
- Data point
- ssa.ssi.recipients_aged_65_plus.2026_06.first_print
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.